Fire ArcaneTier 1
at 貓腳印-桃園店 Regional
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 19.2% | 9 | 4-4-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.0 |
| Wind Allies | 16.4% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 62.0% | +8.9 |
| Water Allies | 8.2% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 44.9% | -2.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 6.8% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 64.5% | +9.3 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 6.8% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 38.3% | -7.5 |
| Fire Erupting | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.6% | -13.5 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.1% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 52.5% | +2.4 |
| Fire Diana | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.1 |
| Fire Lorraine | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.8 |
| Fire Neos | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arisanna | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.9 |
| Water Neos Tonoris | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.6% | -13.5 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Hybrid | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.6% | -11.8 |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.9% | -16.1 |
Decklists · 6 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 17 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 17 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erratic Bolt | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Purge in Flames | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arcane Disposition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mana Limiter | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanish from Sight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Disintegrate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Peer into Mana | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Anger the Skies | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Voltaic Sphere | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Regret | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fireball | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Advent of the Stormcaller | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Storm Tyrant's Eye | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Power Overwhelming | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |